KO手頭上的”明日黃花”股

每次收到Seeking Alpha的電郵，幾乎都有一兩篇是講General Electric呢隻股，題目不外乎是”Has GE bottomed?”或”Still upside potential for GE”之類。

我相信：曾有不少美國公民，在八十年代至千禧年間，因GE這隻”倍升股”而賺到盤滿缽滿。但高位時冇脫角的，hold至今日分分鐘蝕入肉。最慘嘅係，現時仍有不少盲粉死撐GE:

笑人之前，我們都要諗下自己有冇咁嘅一日。以小妹為例，portfolio中有不少吸煤氣的股份。可能享受「十送一」多年後，當掌舵人有變或紅利被取消時，股價便會每況愈下。但對著一個曾令自己獲利多年的愛將，我會捨得沽清這隻”明日黃花”股嗎？

陷入self denial，甚至死坐摶反彈，都是正常人的反應。我就諗住jot down以下幾點，提醒自己如遇上”明日黃花”股，一定要果斷KO!!

1）股價是否離金融海嘯前的高位，愈來愈遠呢？

對buy and hold的投資者來說，股價最理想的trajectory，應是多年來緩漲向上(如中電丶港鐵等)。即使股價曾因金融風暴而下挫，隨經濟復蘇後，應能重拾舊價，甚至再創新高。

但”明日黃花”股如GE，每次海嘯後的反彈高位，也只達以前高位的三分之二(60→40；40→30)。其實第一次出現咁嘅情形，散戶便應跳船。

2）此股是否與行內的sector etf及強勢股，愈走越遠？

再舉General Electric，我本來以為是tech stock，點知查過才知佢屬於industrial sector。咁好啦，我就用XLI及Lockheed Martin同GE比較一下，看看GE同人哋嘅relative strength差幾遠：

(XLI:GE）

(LMT:GE)

3)呢隻股份，是否連通漲都跑輸？

除了跑輸版塊，神奇的”明日黃花”股，會連續跑輸埋各大指數，甚至TIP丶TLT呢類inflation indicators，單係睇圖都覺驚嚇：

4）喺咪愈來愈多作者及散戶，寫以下呢類feel-good文章？

A loss is a loss，股份的基本面開始衰退時，我們便應全數沽清。你會定期檢查自己的portfolio嗎？如發現”明日黃花”股，你又會否捨得沽走它們？歡迎留言分享一下:)

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近日收到網友Alan Chen的電郵，謹此和大家分享一下：

Hi Cherry,

I was really happy to stumble across your blog because your current lifestyle resembles what I might pursue in the near future. I am from Sydney (currently studying at HKU for one exchange semester) and am reading your blog to pick up some inspiration and to widen my chinese reading. As a finance and economics student graduating at the end of 2018, I have always enjoyed teaching, and am considering whether to pursue a full time university TA position in 2019 (whilst continuing my outside tutoring positions and trading shares as other sources of income). However, I am aware of the limited scope to grow within the teaching field, given I do not intend to pursue a university lecturer role as I am not too fond of writing academic papers on a full time basis. Others have recommended for me to start in the industry and to turn back to teaching after gaining a couple of years of experience. Despite this being an attractive option, I believe if I pursued teaching roles right after graduation, I would have an earlier influx of income and more time to develop trading as a secondary source of income. 

I would like to seek your advice on my situation and would like to learn more about your personal journey. For instance, I would like to learn more about your path after graduation (whether you went straight to freelance tutoring), what you tutor, your weekly schedule (e.g. how many hours spent tutoring and researching/trading) and your future career path. 

I understand responding to my concerns might be time consuming, but I would really love to have your opinion, given there are not many others in the same situation. For this reason, I would be more than happy to donate to you 50 Stellar Lumens (XLM) to show my appreciation.

Feel free to respond to my email in chinese. I look forward to hearing from you, and hope you continue your blog for as long as possible :) 

Kind regards,
Alan

其實我冇expertise可回答到阿Alan，另外私人工作/生活等，我亦無意透露。如blog友有好的補充，請不吝留言分享：

Hi Alan,

Nice to receive your email! While I don’t have the expertise to answer all your enquiries, I may share some viewpoints regarding career and work.

With my limited knowledge, I won’t assume being a university lecturer is easy. The workload of grading papers, assisting students, and dealing with red tape in university administrations, can be a real drain on energy. No job is necessarily easy, especially in a field which emphasizes “publish or perish”. The lack of tenure positions is a concern too. Very likely, you will be “pressurized” to acquire a PHD after setting out as a lecturer. 

Besides, were you to give up a “traditional career” in finance industry, you would need to perform consistently well in your other streams of income, like freelance tutoring and day trading. Maybe you excel at using derivatives and leveraging. However, the income can fluctuate greatly in difficult times. The opportunity cost seems to be rather high, given the remunerative nature of your profession.

I am afraid I can’t reveal much about my personal life. But obviously, I have made trade-offs by switching from office work to freelancing. Would your family support your decision? Would your beloved ones’ quality of life be affected? 

Your offer of XLM is generous, but it is not the way how bloggers answer enquiries. A blogger with integrity will never charge “fees” like that. 

If I were in your shoes, I would venture in the business field first. The exposure to macro environment will broaden your horizon, benefiting both your career and investment. If you are really into “freelancing and trading”, feel free to quit the rat race after several years of self-evaluation.

All the best with your future endeavors!

Regards,

Cherry