2018年4月19日 星期四

KO手頭上的”明日黃花”股

每次收到Seeking Alpha的電郵,幾乎都有一兩篇是講General Electric呢隻股,題目不外乎是”Has GE bottomed?””Still upside potential for GE”之類。

我相信:曾有不少美國公民,在八十年代至千禧年間,因GE這隻倍升股而賺到盤滿缽滿。但高位時冇脫角的,hold至今日分分鐘蝕入肉。最慘嘅係,現時仍有不少盲粉死撐GE:




笑人之前,我們都要諗下自己有冇咁嘅一日。以小妹為例,portfolio中有不少吸煤氣的股份。可能享受「十送一」多年後,當掌舵人有變或紅利被取消時,股價便會每況愈下。但對著一個曾令自己獲利多年的愛將,我會捨得沽清這隻明日黃花股嗎?

陷入self denial,甚至死坐摶反彈,都是正常人的反應。我就諗住jot down以下幾點,提醒自己如遇上明日黃花股,一定要果斷KO!!

1)股價是否離金融海嘯前的高位,愈來愈遠呢?

buy and hold的投資者來說,股價最理想的trajectory,應是多年來緩漲向上(如中電丶港鐵等)。即使股價曾因金融風暴而下挫,隨經濟復蘇後,應能重拾舊價,甚至再創新高。

明日黃花股如GE,每次海嘯後的反彈高位,也只達以前高位的三分之二(60→4040→30)。其實第一次出現咁嘅情形,散戶便應跳船。




2)此股是否與行內的sector etf及強勢股,愈走越遠?

再舉General Electric,我本來以為是tech stock,點知查過才知佢屬於industrial sector。咁好啦,我就用XLILockheed MartinGE比較一下,看看GE同人哋嘅relative strength差幾遠:

(XLI:GE)

(LMT:GE)


3)呢隻股份,是否連通漲都跑輸?

除了跑輸版塊,神奇的明日黃花股,會連續跑輸埋各大指數,甚至TIPTLT呢類inflation indicators,單係睇圖都覺驚嚇:




4)喺咪愈來愈多作者及散戶,寫以下呢類feel-good文章?



A loss is a loss,股份的基本面開始衰退時,我們便應全數沽清。你會定期檢查自己的portfolio嗎?如發現明日黃花股,你又會否捨得沽走它們?歡迎留言分享一下:)

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近日收到網友Alan Chen的電郵,謹此和大家分享一下:

Hi Cherry,

I was really happy to stumble across your blog because your current lifestyle resembles what I might pursue in the near future. I am from Sydney (currently studying at HKU for one exchange semester) and am reading your blog to pick up some inspiration and to widen my chinese reading. As a finance and economics student graduating at the end of 2018, I have always enjoyed teaching, and am considering whether to pursue a full time university TA position in 2019 (whilst continuing my outside tutoring positions and trading shares as other sources of income). However, I am aware of the limited scope to grow within the teaching field, given I do not intend to pursue a university lecturer role as I am not too fond of writing academic papers on a full time basis. Others have recommended for me to start in the industry and to turn back to teaching after gaining a couple of years of experience. Despite this being an attractive option, I believe if I pursued teaching roles right after graduation, I would have an earlier influx of income and more time to develop trading as a secondary source of income. 

I would like to seek your advice on my situation and would like to learn more about your personal journey. For instance, I would like to learn more about your path after graduation (whether you went straight to freelance tutoring), what you tutor, your weekly schedule (e.g. how many hours spent tutoring and researching/trading) and your future career path. 

I understand responding to my concerns might be time consuming, but I would really love to have your opinion, given there are not many others in the same situation. For this reason, I would be more than happy to donate to you 50 Stellar Lumens (XLM) to show my appreciation.

Feel free to respond to my email in chinese. I look forward to hearing from you, and hope you continue your blog for as long as possible :) 

Kind regards,
Alan

其實我冇expertise可回答到阿Alan,另外私人工作/生活等,我亦無意透露。如blog友有好的補充,請不吝留言分享:

Hi Alan,

Nice to receive your email! While I don’t have the expertise to answer all your enquiries, I may share some viewpoints regarding career and work.

With my limited knowledge, I won’t assume being a university lecturer is easy. The workload of grading papers, assisting students, and dealing with red tape in university administrations, can be a real drain on energy. No job is necessarily easy, especially in a field which emphasizes “publish or perish”. The lack of tenure positions is a concern too. Very likely, you will be “pressurized” to acquire a PHD after setting out as a lecturer. 

Besides, were you to give up a “traditional career” in finance industry, you would need to perform consistently well in your other streams of income, like freelance tutoring and day trading. Maybe you excel at using derivatives and leveraging. However, the income can fluctuate greatly in difficult times. The opportunity cost seems to be rather high, given the remunerative nature of your profession.

I am afraid I can’t reveal much about my personal life. But obviously, I have made trade-offs by switching from office work to freelancing. Would your family support your decision? Would your beloved ones’ quality of life be affected? 

Your offer of XLM is generous, but it is not the way how bloggers answer enquiries. A blogger with integrity will never charge “fees” like that. 

If I were in your shoes, I would venture in the business field first. The exposure to macro environment will broaden your horizon, benefiting both your career and investment. If you are really into “freelancing and trading”, feel free to quit the rat race after several years of self-evaluation.

All the best with your future endeavors!

Regards,

Cherry 

30 則留言:

  1. 買股票不用跟它談戀愛的,每日都應以新一任情人的心態對待之。過去就算它給自己的是激情、浪漫、猜疑還是怨恨,忘記它就好了。

    另,回應電郵內容,當年大學 Final Year 時我也考慮過繼續走學術路線執教鞭,但自己只是象牙塔長大未有見過世面,覺得自己教書比起其他教授或導師沒有優勢,所以畢業時決定了先在商界汲取經驗,日後希望可以將實戰經驗授予學生。結果一做就是十多年,至於學術文章… 就留在 Blog 發表吧! :)

    Cherry 說得很對,在大學教書,KPI 有 70% 都是做研究,還要在官僚環境的狹縫生存,實在不是自己想做的事情、想過的生活。

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    1. 謝謝福祿兄的詳細分享!好多散戶持有某隻股一耐咗,就會將其”擬人化”,講到佢有血有肉咁。其實這只是個人不捨得止蝕的表現。

      原來你以前也考慮過學術界,但相信現時豐盛的事業,是不會令你後悔當年的決定的。香港的學術圈子很細,lecturer又係豬頭骨工,所以真的不容易做!

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  2. 好似GE呢類無前景但又好難執嘅企業,其債券反而可以考慮,可惜殖息率仍未到吸引階段。

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    1. 謝謝風兄的分享👍 GE同GM呢類有”護城河”的國家企業,又真係好難執,所以其債券是可考慮的選擇。

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    1. 70兄都持有匯豐喎...但搵啱位入才是最重要的👍

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    2. Rx10兄~仲有隻8號仔,雖然out哋🤣

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    3. Poor me, I have a few of these "flowers" since 2007 which I need to get rid of. Fortunately it doesn't account for a significant portion of my portfolio.

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    4. I think everyone of us can relate to your experience, Gitana. It’s like removing the weeds in your garden. Just sell the losers before they deteriorate your overall returns!

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    5. 我都同意明日黃花股唔代表唔可以玩,只要不要心存幻想盲目以為它會有一天重拾昔日的光輝。我都搵位入了 293,回報還可以。

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    6. 對呢福祿兄,股份搵啱位入丶吼佢過咗最壞時機,之後便可能有盈利。只要不太貪心,便可捕捉錯價的機會👍

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  4. 只係可以講自由工作者+DAY TRADE,比起全職工作,絕對唔係表面睇咁爽。

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    1. 呵呵對呢Ryan兄~ 4pm前day trade丶4pm後補習,不一定好過office工。當自己要全權孭飛時,便沒有明確的「放工」時間。

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    2. 我而家50%持倉都係3號仔,諗住每年3%息+10送1可以穩步增加股息同股數,當然股息同紅股政策隨時可以變~都係要KEEP住留意公司,同埋搵定後路。

      BTW Cherry姐英文好好 :P 應該係有幫人補英文!!!

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    3. 對呢Ryan兄,煤氣真是預備退休的好選擇。只是將來一有需要,便要趁除淨日前,兌換某些股份做現金。

      “英文好好”
      太過獎了!我呢哋只是求生技能,Ryan兄的語言能力才勁呢👍

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  5. 捐50個XLM俾妳....Sorry我忍唔住笑咗 xdd

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    1. 阿Sue唔好笑啦😅 鋼之鍊金術師都教我地要等價交換,好正常啫~

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    2. I really don't mean to laugh at others too but the word "donate" is a bit funny. But I am sure Alan really treat you as an expert and would like to learn from you.

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    3. Thanks for your comment Gitana! I think Alan just tries to be reciprocal, which is a well-intentioned act. That’s much better than people who always ask for favors, but do nothing in return...

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  6. 明日黃花股也不是不可買的, 但要看清現實, 股價與公司基本因素的關係.

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    1. Joseph兄說得很對,有些股爛到不能再爛,反而是吸納的好時機時機👍

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  7. 即係好似馬場的老傷病弱殘過氣馬王,總係有人會緬懷其過去的輝煌,繼續大大注咁買。

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    1. 對呢池兄,即使是巴基之星,將來總會有退役的一天,長江後浪推前浪呢/_\

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  8. 要捨棄一隻曾經賬面賺過大錢既股票,唔係咁易做到,總係會幻想佢會再升返上黎,所以唔係咁多人o係股票市場大賺啦!

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    1. 對呢賢兄,好多股民因不肯認輸,便繼續犧牲等待的成本。單是匯豐及渣打,過往多年便吸引了不少想托市的忠心粉絲。

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  9. 網誌管理員已經移除這則留言。

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  10. 來信嘅Alan仔,好似低估了做freelance的難度..

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    1. Yes Sammy, the grass is always greener on the other side...

      對大部分的freelancers來說,一人養家都是頗大風險。好似我個人做freelance,配偶就做salary man,大家有個buffer比較穩陣。

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